Maoist, NA at loggerheads

AKHILESH UPADHYAY
KATHMANDU, Jan 22 - Despite Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal's recent dismissal of speculations that his party is all set to remove Chief of Army Staff Gen. Rookmangud Katawal from office, relations between the Unified CPN (Maoist) and Nepal Army (NA) continue to remain frosty and there is deep insecurity in the NA that Maoists are likely to mount a charge for Gen. Katawal's removal before his three-year term comes to an end in mid-September.
Should this happen, it will further deepen the already-growing polarisation between political parties and possibly between major international actors too. It can also add to Nepal Army's perception that Maoists want to subjugate, while the NA continues to look for elusive political patronage since the decline and demise of monarchy.
Never in best of terms, relations between Maoists and the Army chief have especially deteriorated after Gen. Katawal took a firm position on not rolling back the NA's ongoing recruitment of some 2,800 personnel, a process that officially began on Nov. 2 with a vacancy advertisement in newspapers.
On Dec. 24, the Maoist-led Defence Ministry wrote a letter to the Army, asking it to stop the recruitment process. In its Dec. 31 response, the NA said its move is well within the confines of the peace agreement and constitutional. In the ongoing recruitment, the Army has received some 50,000 applications and collected Rs. 5.5 million in application fees.
NA insists that the current recruitment doesn't violate any clause in the 12-point agreement or the Interim Constitution as NA personnel will remain within the current NA ceiling. The peace clauses, the NA argues, only bars recruitment that would swell the current NA ranks. Not filling up routine vacancies would stretch the current personnel. The annual turnover comes out to be anywhere between 2,500-3,000. This is the third NA recruitment since the peace process started in 2006 and the fact that the recruitment became a story only now and not on past two occasions gives further credence to the theory that differences between the NA and Maoists are deepening.
The opposition Nepali Congress has gone on record in support of the NA recruitment process, insisting that "any attempt to politicise" the recruitment issue will only affect the morale of the apolitical institution. Madheshi Janadhikar Forum and CPN-UML, two major partners in the ruling coalition and the third and fourth largest parties in the Constituent Assembly, have also supported the NA position on going ahead with the recruitment.
The move is likely to lead to polarisation in the international community too. Already, New Delhi has conveyed to the CPN (Maoist) leadership in various forums that early removal of the Army chief could create needless political complications.
Delhi views that the Maoists, having achieved their goals of removal of monarchy and institutionalization of a republic through the Constitutional Assembly, could now sidestep their commitment to pluralism and multiparty democracy in violation of the letter and spirit of the 12-point agreement between the Seven Party Alliance and CPN (Maoist) developed, and ultimately signed, in New Delhi in 2005. In all likelihood, Beijing will support the Maoist position. It is still not very clear how two other major international actors, which have enjoyed strong ties with Nepal Army -- Washington and London -- would respond. "For now, both U.S. and U.K. are keeping cards very close to their chest," said a senior government official.
Though Gen. Katawal can potentially contest his removal (should that happen) in the Supreme Court, it is not going to be an easy option. First, any defiance on his part could be interpreted as abeyance to a civilian government and hence undemocratic. Second, the new Army chief and a section of senior Army officials could question his move, severely crippling his political grounds.
If Katawal is removed in the near future, his successor will be Gen. Kul Bahadur Khadka whose own term expires mid-June, but Khadka will continue in the office as Army chief for a three-year term should he be promoted to the top position. If Gen. Katawal completes his term in September, Gen. Chhattraman Singh Gurung is the senior-most general in the line of succession.
"We have already made our position on the NA recruitment clear" said a UML Cabinet minister. "We expect the Maoists to take us into confidence in the true spirit of a coalition if they are planning to take any decision on the fate of Nepal Army and its chief."
One important date to watch would be Feb. 16-21, when the UML General Convention gets underway. Whether the Maoists make their move before the convention depends a lot on what kind of outcome they would like to see: removing Gen. Katawal before the convention is likely to bolster the stocks of the anti-Maoist camp in UML led by K. P. Oli. Either two or three senior most leaders in the party - General Secretary J. N. Khanal, former General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal and Oli - are likely to contest for the proposed executive chair in the party convention.
There have been speculations in recent days that Unified CPN (Maoist) will take the decision to remove the Army chief sooner rather than later to appease hardliners in the party. Prime Minister Dahal, according to this theory, is under tremendous pressure from Defence Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa who, it is said, views Gen. Katawal's continued refusal to roll back the recruitment as the ultimate affront to his authority.
Courtesy: Kantipur: January 21, 2009