What now?

Most observers, including this writer, fail in assessing the Maoists correctly because we end up using the same categories, attribute the same motivations, and expect similar tactics from them as from other political actors.
The PM's resignation came after a two week long political thriller leading up to the executive's decision to dismiss Army chief General Katawal and appoint General Kul Bahadur Khadka in his place.
The last fortnight saw hectic political activity - the government seeking clarification from Katawal; the UML initially agreeing with the Maoist move and then backtracking because of the internal rift; a section of the NC playing along in the hope of getting space in the cabinet but getting overwhelmed by the larger party view which feared a Maoist takeover of the army; an unprecedented divide at the top echelons of the military; intense media speculation on options ranging from a 'soft coup' to a mutiny within the Maoists; the emergence of an active presidency; and direct Indian engagement with the ambassador meeting the PM at least half a dozen times.
But all the negotiations bore little fruit, apart from giving each side a chance to test each other and exposing the stark polarisation in Nepali politics.
On Sunday morning, the Maoists went ahead with their decision to sack General Katawal. Other parties, as expected, opposed it. The UML walked out of government. There was a crisis within the military chain of command when General Katawal decided not to accept the PM's orders and wait for the President's instructions, even as General Khadka claimed he was legitimately entitled to head the army. The president stepped in with a letter late Sunday night asking Katawal to stay on - a move that has provoked criticism against Dr Yadav for having overstepped his authority. On Monday afternoon, after a meeting of the Maoist secretariat, the PM decided to resign, criticising the president for creating a dual power centre; and foreign powers (read India) for blatantly interfering in Nepali affairs.
So what does all this mean? Where does Nepali politics, the peace process, and the Maoist party head from here?
For one, it has been proved once again that the Maoists are excellent at making the best out of a bad situation. The PM was under enormous pressure from all factions of the party leadership and the party rank and file to assert his authority - after a series of incidents when they have had to back down. He knew that with the UML walking out, it would have been a struggle to keep up a majority. (The only way would have been to somehow bribe MJF into staying on, while luring other smaller parties). The PM also realised that the political situation and constitutional crisis could go totally out of control and even if he succeeded in staying on, this would not be a sustainable regime. Also remember that the last eight months have been extremely difficult for the Maoist party. The party organisation may have become stronger but their credibility had dipped drastically. Failure to deliver on basic promises and bring about any perceptible change has diminished the party's standing among its supporters, and Prachanda's own standing within the party. The Katawal row provided Prachanda a pretext to resign.
This may not have been as well thought out and strategic as it seems retrospectively. After all, which party wants to leave control of the state apparatus? However, the PM's resignation gives the Maoists the moral high ground, and a chance to monopolise the opposition space. It relieves them of any responsibility and expectation that came with running the state; enhances Prachanda's popularity; energises the cadre; and gives them a much -needed set of enemies they can target. Ram Baran Yadav-Katawal-K P Oli-Rakesh Sood now constitutes the new pantheon of enemies in the Maoist propaganda machine.
Even if the Maoists come back and become a part of a national government, after a renegotiation of terms with other parties and some movement on the Katawal issue, the Maoists have managed to differentiate themselves from other actors on the stage. What they are putting out is this - at a time when the President wants more power than the constitution gives him, the UML and NC want to form a new government subverting the mandate of the CA elections, and India wanted us to relent, we stood up and gave up power. The Maoists are back to doing what they know best, which is play the victim.
This episode clearly brings forth what was quite evident in the last six months. The rapidly deteriorating relationship between India and the Maoists; NC and the Maoists; and the army and the Maoists led to the crisis. Till these three interlinked relationships get back on track, there can be no movement on the peace process or any prospect of political stability.
The Maoists are right when they point out that the Indian role played a decisive part in this crisis. India did play an active role - first in telling the Maoists not to go ahead, then in encouraging the other parties to walk out of the alliance; and in thinking of ways to prevent the implementation of the decision to sack General Katawal. But this should not have come as a surprise to Maoists, who know the reality of Indian involvement in Nepal better than most others given the route they have traversed. Delhi had made it clear innumerable times not only to the Maoists, but also to journalists and others, that they will not tolerate any messing around with the army structure. India had become increasingly suspicious of Maoist intentions, its efforts to cosy up with China, and this incident proved to be the breaking point. As a diplomat put it, "There is no point in pretending anymore. We hate each other's guts and the gloves are off."
India may have achieved its objective of preserving status quo in the army chain of command, and keeping the Maoists away from exerting control over it. Other forces may even be grateful to Delhi for paving the way for a renegotiation of terms with Maoists, or an alternative government. But Prachanda's resignation has pre-empted the Indian move to actively oust the government. The absence of low key subtle diplomacy today makes India look foolish and reinforces the image of it as bully, and gives the Maoists enough ammunition to generate and capitalise on the 'nationalist', read anti-India, plank on the Kathmandu street.
The NC-Maoist relationship is characterised by deep fear and insecurity on part of the NC and excessive ambition on part of the Maoists. The NA-Maoist ties are characterised by the antipathy stemming from the war days; a clash of class interests; and the deep suspicion of NA top brass that Maoists want to take control and suspicion of Maoists that NA will block any move to initiate 'progressive' policies.
Till India and Maoists re-establish some trust; till NC and Maoists do not rework terms and a power sharing arrangement; and till NA, Maoists and other parties come to an acceptable political compromise on integration, we are stuck. With the events of the last two weeks, prospects of progress on all three fronts have receded.
At present, hectic political negotiations are underway. There is a real possibility of a Madhav Nepal led coalition government, though as mentioned earlier, some actors are keen on getting the Maoists back on board in a national government with all party participation.
If you are an optimist, you can look at it this way. A serious constitutional crisis has been averted. The Maoists have committed themselves to the peace and constitution writing process and will not return to the jungle. Normal competitive politics is taking its own course with parties slugging it out for influence, power and privileges. And this shock treatment will allow all parties to sit together and prepare a new deal to take the process forward. If you are a pessimist, you can focus on the fact that this will actually cripple the process. No government can function effectively if the Maoists are out and seek to be obstructionist. Any alternative will be short-lived and unsustainable, and the Maoists could come back even stronger with a more dogmatic agenda. Constitution writing cannot move forward without the former rebels. There may now be a temptation in some sections of the army to think of themselves as beyond civilian control, which in turn could lead to them intervening in partisan politics. And, this polarisation at the centre will leave the state even weaker and unreformed, thus allowing the anarchy outside to fester.
Either ways, Nepal has relapsed into a sharp political conflict, fortunately without the war and violence this time around.

Courtesy: PRASHANT JHA

YCL leave Image Channel main gate but still in vicinity

REPUBLICA About 20 cadres of Maoist-affiliated YCL who had gathered outside the premises of Image Channel TV that showed the video of their chairman making startling revelations about their party´s intentions and views on the peace process, left the main gate after about 30 minutes.A journalist working for the channel told myrepublica.com that the YCL cadres they wanted to talk to the person who decided to air the video.Police has reached the spot and has prevented the cadres from entering the TV station´s premises.The 80-minutes video has been aired by about every TV channel now. It was the Image Channel which had first aired the video in its news bulletin Monday night.
(YCL=Youth Communist/Criminal League [according to CPN-Maoist and NC respectively]

Courtesy: REPUBLICA, May 5, 2009.

Principle Of Most Privilege

So here’s how it goes. The Nepali Congress supports Nepal’s most assertive army chief who also happens to be the adopted son of the king it hates the most, in the name of upholding democracy. The popularly elected Maoists who claimed to have singlehandedly abolished the monarchy can’t assert their prerogative of establishing civilian supremacy over the military.Gen. Rookmangad Katuwal, who throughout the week was rumored to be plotting a coup, decides to accept his discharge order and seek judicial remedy. His boss, supreme commander Ram Baran Yadav, preempts things by ordering the general to stay put.Maoist chief ideologue Dr. Baburam Bhattarai describes the president’s move as a “constitutional coup”. This, hours after declaring that the army is behind its new chief, General Kul Bahadur Khadka. Except that Khadka wasn’t quite sure whether to accept the appointment.The peace process faces its worst threat over a man who is going to retire in a couple of months anyway. It’s worth it, considering the principles involved, each side claims. Insubordination cannot be tolerated in a new Nepal, the Maoists claim. (Especially when it blocks the restive Maoist commanders from the career-enhancement opportunities that drove them to the peace process.) Better to issue the sack order unilaterally and fall than to look for a pretext to quit.The Nepali Congress can claim it looked past the grievous injuries it suffered at the hands of the military to establish the rule of law. (Never mind that from B.P. Koirala’s prison diaries, it looks like his 1960-1968 detention was his best eight years in terms of culinary choice.)With a leading party member having replaced the monarch as supreme commander, it was incumbent upon the Nepali Congress to defend the status quo. If Sujata Koirala wanted Katuwal out because he had failed to invite her to the army’s New Year’s bash, well, that was her problem. Our president cannot be held back by the recognition that his ethnicity remains the least represented in the national army.The Unified Marxist-Leninists promptly withdrew from the coalition claiming the Maoists violated the principle of consensus governing governance. By putting forth a proposal to oust Katuwal, Khadka and Defense Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal together, the UML sought to inject some clarity in its traditional cloudiness, which ended up muddling things more. At least, Jhal Nath Khanal and K.P. Oli could bury their differences and bolster the prospect of resurrecting a UML-led they felt had fallen victim to a constitutional coup 14 years ago.The promise of regaining power with the help of the Nepali Congress, which had plotted its downfall in 1995, is rivaled by the hope of regaining the communist center. (Imagine how hard it must have been for our mainstream comrades to be taking orders from people who were living on UML’s crumbs of a few safe seats in the 1991 and 1994 elections.)Nepal Sadbhavana Party quit the coalition to tighten the screws on the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF). With the Chinese infuriated by Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s decision to call off his China visit at the last minute, who knows what tug of war must be going on between the northern and southern wings of the MJF?The most telling part of the entire saga was the least reported – and not just because it preceded denouement. The three principal parties of the former panchas have decided to back a Nepali Congress-led broader democratic alliance. With Surya Bahadur Thapa and Pashupati Shamsher Rana both having been placed under detention after the February 1, 2005 royal takeover, it has become a bit harder to dispute the democratic credentials of the parties they lead.But the Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal of Kamal Thapa? Wasn’t he the most controversial member of the royal government after the chairman himself? And not the slightest murmur of indignation from the Nepali Congress. Is the nation’s self-designated sole democratic party ceding so much ground to put the finishing touches to a formal demand for a referendum on the monarchy? It’s all in the neck.

Courtesy: Maila Baje, May 5, 2009, http://nepalinetbook.blogspot.com/2009/05/principle-of-most-privilege.html

Video shows Dahal admitting real strength of PLA not more than 8,000; sharing plans to control army and capture state

In a shocking revelation, it appears that the actual strength of the Maoist People's Liberation Army (PLA) was between 7,000 and 8,000 and not 35,000 as reported by Maoists before United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) started the verification process.
In a video telecast by Kathmandu-based Image Channel Monday afternoon, Maoist chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal is seen telling PLA combatants in a meeting at Shaktikhor located cantonment in Chitwan how the party swindled all into believing that the number of PLA was 35,000 when it was actually not more than 8,000, ultimately leading to the increase in PLA's strength rather than its reduction as has been assumed.
Dahal is seen further justifying the inflated figure in the video which the channel claimed was from January 2, 2008 when the Maoists were an important constituent of the Girija Prasad Koirala led interim government
"We were (PLA's strength) somewhere between 7,000 and 8,000. If we had reported the correct figure of the PLA, then it would then have been reduced to around 4,000."
"But our party's leadership decided to report PLA strength as 35,000, and thanks to it the PLA's strength is now 20,000 at least," he said smilingly, evoking peels of laughter around him.
"So our strength has actually increased. You and I know the truth, but why should we tell it to others."
He said the apart from the PLA, which he said is now already a "regular army", the party has also formed YCL comprising thousands of youths despite various difficulties and "who now add to our strength".
The Maoist chairman also revealed that a significant share of the money that will go to "our martyrs" in villages throughout the country and the PLA in cantonments will be used by the party to prepare for revolt and ultimately capture the state.
"You all know that if we have enough money in our hands we can prepare a good battle plan. So, the party needs a good amount of money for the revolt," he said.
He further said that though the party may appear to have again reached a compromise (with the state and political parties), "but if you look deeply then you will know how seriously the party is preparing for the ultimate revolt".
Thereafter, Dahal talked about the difficulties that exist in the wholesale integration of PLA combatants into the Nepal Army (NA).
Claiming that PLA combatants are "politically aware", he said even a small number of their entry into NA is enough to establish complete Maoist control over the army.
This was why Army chief Rookmangud Katawal was against our soldiers entry into the army, he said.

Courtesy: NepalNews, May 5, 2009.

Are gods turning against Nepal’s Maoist government?

When King Gyanendra’s army-backed reign ended three years ago followed by the abolition of monarchy in the world’s only Hindu kingdom, it did not come as a surprise to the Himalayan nation’s devout Hindus.“It was on the cards,” says Upendra Dahal, a Brahmin priest who also dabbles in astrology at the revered Pashupatinath temple in Kathmandu. “The gods were against him and sent him omens.”
Not one or two, there were at least four “divine warnings”.
An annual procession during which the Kumari or Kathmandu’s Living Goddess - a pre-pubescent girl regarded as the protective deity of the royal family - is taken around the capital was disrupted after an axle broke.
A second chariot procession to mark the worship of Rato Machhindranath, the god of rains, was halted due to curfew imposed by the king’s government.
As people started to take note of the omens, which were said to prophesy disaster, a third warning sounded in a temple in northern Dolakha district. The stone statue of a Hindu deity, Bhimsen, began to “sweat”, a phenomenon that in the past was said to have been followed by disasters such as killer earthquakes and the massacre of the royal family.
A fourth jarring note was struck when for the first time in Nepal’s history, a Kumari was “sacked” by her temple priests for venturing out of Nepal to attend a documentary festival in the US.
Now a year after the exit of the king and his former arch enemies, the Maoist guerrillas, coming to power, there are fresh divine rumblings.
On Sunday, the procession of Rato Machhindranath came to a standstill once again as the immense chariot almost keeled over.
The debacle coincided with a mighty blow to the eight-month-old Maoist government with its two allies deserting, reducing it to a minority.
Then to add to Maoist Prime Minister Prachanda’s woes, Nepal’s first President Ram Baran Yadav, who last year succeeded deposed king Gyanendra as the head of the new republic, stayed the ruling party’s order to sack the chief of the army, Gen Rookmangud Katawal. The decision drove the former guerrillas into a do-or-die situation.
As the spectre of a no-trust vote and a humiliating defeat hangs over the Maoist government, people are also talking of the former rebels’ professed disdain for religion.
Lawmaker Sunil Babu Pant noted in a report made after visiting Sunsari district in southern Nepal, which was hit by major floods last year and for which some villagers blamed Prachanda.
“The prime minister took the oath of office in the name of people and not god,” a villager said. “It was his disbelief that angered the gods and caused the flood.”

Courtesy: IANS

Coup a drunkard's gossip: Maoist leader

May 1: Rumor about Nepal Army staging a coup in the country was just a drunkard´s gossip, a politburo member of the ruling Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) said on Friday."Drunkards have spread the rumor," said Ram Karki aka Partha Chhetri, against his party leaders´ consistent claims that Nepal Army chief General Rookmangud Katawal was planning a coup against the government.Addressing a laborers´ rally in Biratnagar, Karki, however, said his party was resolute on taking action against Katawal. During his speech delivered in mixture of Nepali and Maithili language, he criticized the main opposition Nepali Congress for creating obstacles in the process of the action."When we are trying to take action against Katawal for his defiance to government orders, Nepali Congress is making hue and cry on the issue," he said. "Nepali Congress still has an illusion that it is still in power."Karki claimed that the Nepali Congress did not have the guts to take to the streets against the government move to sack Katawal."We need to democratize (janatantrikaran) the force that took oath to protect kings, royal family and the crown in the past," he said. "The Nepal Army soldiers must know that they are not the only force who know how to use guns."

Coutesy: REPUBLICA online, accessed May 1

Leadership deficit

Nearly nine months into government there are a lot of indications about the character and quality of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s leadership. And the indications are not good, to say the least. “Character is fate,” wrote Heraclitus, the sixth century BC Greek philosopher. If that’s true, little lies in store for Dahal, and it also means that our hopes for moral and visionary leadership may elude us once again.Leadership basically means four things—imagination, moral integrity, charisma and willpower. Forget about the past kings and Pancha prime ministers; even the democratically elected leaders failed to display leadership qualities.In post-1950 Nepal, the country’s modern political era, only two leaders stand out—B P Koirala and Madan Bhandari. Koirala displayed these qualities amply—he was an inspirational leader with high moral integrity and also a man of action and determination. Bhandari’s public life was too short to be judged on each of these counts but his charisma mesmerized people even then. He also showed wisdom and imagination in transforming what was still a radical party in 1990—the UML— into a moderate, left-of-centre party. Unfortunately, neither of them was tested long enough in power — Koirala was put in jail after one-and-half years of his premiership; Bhandari died in a car accident three years into public life and never made it to the highest office.The rest of the democratically elected leaders—Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, Girija Prasad Koirala, Manmohan Adhikari and Sher Bahadur Deuba—showed more deficit than resource.Bhattarai’s moral integrity, especially when it comes to probity in public life, and intellect were commendable. His sense of humor sometimes compensated for lack of charisma. But he was hardly a man of action, something which Girija Prasad Koirala is. Willpower is in abundant supply with Koirala but imagination has cheated him. Sometimes I wish we had the power to combine Bhattarai’s intellect and integrity and Koirala’s willpower, determination and dynamism in one leader.Manmohan Adhikari, too, valued integrity highly and lived accordingly. But he was hardly the man in charge even when he was party president and prime minister—he was just the figurehead of a mammoth party organization that inherited him and not the other way round. Sher Bahadur Deuba had abundant luck but nothing else to become a leader.Where does PM Dahal fit? And where will he take us?Give him a full score for audacity—not for his judgment though— in leading the people’s war. Equal score for his ability to show flexibility and to reach out for compromise when he deems it necessary. There is another quality which strikes a chord with people: His frankness. Sometimes he is more candid than he should have been in public.But lately Prachanda is displaying some serious deficits: He is self-centered and manipulative.Senior party leaders say in private that he knows how best to defend his personal interests and keeps the party divided to serve them. Efforts to establish Narayankaji Shrestha as de-facto number two in the Maoist hierarchy hasn’t gone down well in the party, certainly not with Babauram Bhattarai.Bhattarai feels doubly cheated. When Bhattarai told Dahal that he had no interest in joining the cabinet just as a senior minister the latter promised to make him sole deputy prime minister. It was only during the oath-taking ceremony that Bhattarai learnt the post of deputy prime minister had gone to Bam Dev Gautam. Ever since there has been no warmth between the two. Not just Bhattarai, but many other senior Maoist leaders feel disillusioned with Dahal, primarily because of his “double-dealing” and manipulations.Centralization of party resources provides another useful window into the life and character of the prime minister. Prachanda’s son-in-law is the one who handles party funds. No one except the father- and son-in-law know the details of the party’s income and expenses. And who are his aides at Baluwatar? Most are relatives. All this points to a serious question about integrity. We all know that Dahal is not an intellectual, but if he also lacks integrity what kind of leadership does he have to offer? At best, he will just try to patch things up here and there and try to hang on, and at worst he will be ready to do unimaginable things. Remember, absence of intellect and integrity can be a dreadful mix.Prachanda’s public track record is equally uninspiring. He does not take seriously the promises he makes in public and he may commit himself to something or anything, but not mean it. He has gaffed, bungled and lied so many times the public no longer trusts him. If there is one thing that a leader needs to stir a country out of trouble it is the TRUST of the people.During the Great Depression when there was a run on banks in the United States, threatening a complete meltdown of the financial system, President Franklin D Roosevelt appeared in public, laughed off the crisis and declared that the banks had enough deposits for withdrawal. The next day the bank run eased because the American people trusted Roosevelt.So far, Dahal’s colleagues and people in general have not pointed a finger at him because his failures have not become too obvious. Once they become obvious, there will be no one to share the blame — victory has a hundred fathers but defeat is an orphan. Hope Dahal understands that and mends his ways before it’s too late.

Courtesy: AMEET DHAKAL

Will Maoists agree to UML ‘face saver’?

By Anand Gurung
As the ruling Unified CPN (Maoist) appears intent on booting its former nemesis Chief of Army Staff Rookmangud Katawal and has intensified parleys with key coalition partner CPN-UML and main opposition Nepali Congress to convince them for his sacking, the nation has plunged into a deep political crisis which can have adverse effect on the army integration, statute drafting and, as a result, the entire peace process.
Firstly, it is becoming very difficult for the Maoists to garner national consensus in their favour on the spat between the government and the army chief. To remove CoAS Katawal it must take political parties - mainly Nepali Congress - into confidence. However, that seems a far cry as the second largest party in the CA has already made it clear that it will not tolerate any interference in the national army. As a proof of its commitment on the matter, NC (with the support of 16 fringe parties in the CA) has continued to obstruct the Legislature-Parliament sessions since the controversy surfaced following government's decision to seek clarification from the Army chief, warning further that it will keep adjourning the House until the government backs out from its plan.
UML, however, has opted more of a "middle path" as the party's leadership remains clearly divided over the Maoists plan to sack the Army chief. Stressing the need to resolve the Govt-Army row on the basis of national consensus, the third largest party in the CA has offered a way out to resolve the issue which seems sort of a face-saver for both the Maoists and themselves. As per it, UML wants both CoAS Katawal and the Maoist choice to replace him, Lt General Kul Bahadur Khadka, to resign and make way for General Chhatra Man Singh Gurung, who is third-in-line in the army chain-of-command, to become the new CoAS. In return, UML also wants to see Maoist Defense Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa resign from his post, to make it appear that the government has taken similar action against its own minister for letting the row go out of hand.
The UML formula may be acceptable to all the parties to the controversy. Not only the Maoist-led government will appear to have taken action against its disobedient army chief, but will also for the first time not look to have backed out from a many major decision it has taken in the past, like for instance, the Pashupatinath incident has shown where it had to withdraw its decision to replace the Indian head priest with a Nepali one.
Similarly, Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal will also be able to show his party cadres that they have taken action against the chief of their former rivals for refusing to obey government orders and especially for being against the former Maoist combatants entry into the Nepal Army by calling them "politically indoctrinated".
On the other hand, the plan could be agreeable to NC too because it would not be in the interest to appear as obstructing the House sessions on every government move and delay the constitution writing process when removal of General Khadka, who it views as the Maoist man in the army, along with Army chief Katawal might assure it for that the Maoist aim of capturing state power by taking Nepal Army under its control has been quashed for the time being.
But most of all, the "face-saving" formula will also work for the UML as it will make the party appear cooperative towards the government of which it is an important constituent while at the same time bolster its role, like some analysts puts it, as the moderate centrist "problem-solver", an image it was to create for itself when the mantle of the mainstream communist party has already been snatched from it by the Maoists.
However, observers see little possibility of Maoist agreeing to the UML proposal, as it offers only a "face-saver" to it amidst intense national and international (read Indian) pressure to back away from its plan, but no real advantage as far as its long term political ambitions is concerned.
General Khadka had, according to some reports, been lobbying hard with the Maoist leadership since many months to become the new Army chief because, though he was second-in-line in the army chain-of-command, he was retiring before CoAS Katawal completed his full tenure of three years. To appear as a favourable candidate for the post, he had agreed to ease the integration of all 19,000 Maoist combatants in the Army, give plum post of brigadier to Maoist deputy commanders including Major General for PLA commander Nanda Kishor Pun, stop new recruitments in the Army for a while and other considerations as per the liking of the Maoist leadership.
But according to retired Army General Pradip Pratap Bam Malla, the plan of sacking the Army chief will only add more fuel to fire and may even prove disastrous for the country in the long run.
When asked if by "disastrous" he meant that the army will stage a coup, he says there's little possibility of that as Nepal Army will require both foreign backing and sizable public support before it takes such a serious step.
"As there are no chances of Nepal Army getting either of those, the coup talks are baseless," Malla says. "But what I am saying is that, the move of removing the Army chief will humiliate the national army so much that it will have multiplier negative effect on the long term security interest of the country."
He says that an amicable solution to the problem should be found.
"For the Army chief being issued a clarification letter is in itself some degree of punishment and I believe the government should stop at that," Malla says. "In normal times, the government could have sacked the Army chief easily with the least protest, but these are not normal times and trampling with the army in these times is surely not advisable."

Courtesy: nepalnews.com, April 27, 2009.

UML proposes to dismiss Defence Minister Thapa, CoAS Katwal, Lt. Gen Khadka

KATHMANDU, April 27 - The CPN-UML on Monday put forth a proposal to the Unified CPN (Maoist) leadership to dismiss Chief of the Army Staff Rookmangud Katawal, Defence Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa, and Lieutenant General Kul Bahadur Khadka on Monday.
In the meeting of the top guns of the two major ruling parties held at the Prime Minister's official residence at Baluwatar today morning, the UML said that all three controversial figures should be relieved from their duties to solve the present political crisis.
Saying Minister Thapa could not prove himself politically and administratively competent to handle the Defence Ministry, the major ally of the Maoist-led coalition UML asked the Maoist leadership to pull him out from the Cabinet.
Moreover, the UML also proposed to appoint Lt Gen Chhatra Man Gurung, third-in-line in the Nepal Army, the CoAS to resolve the controversy regarding the NA command.
“It will be a viable option to bid farewell to the two top controversial figures --CoAS Katawal and Lt. Gen. Khadka-- in the army and look for a third person to lead instead,” said the UML source.
However, the Maoist leadership refused the UML proposal and said that it is firm on taking action against CoAS Katawal.
Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal asked the UML to back him to oust CoAS Katawal.
Only yesterday, the UML Standing Committee had decided not to support the Maoist plan to replace the Army Chief by the second-in-command (Lt. Gen Khadka), but said the party would facilitate other options, also acceptable to the main opposition Nepali Congress (NC).

What’s cooking in Delhi?

By Anand Gurung
High-profile meetings by former king Gyanendra and G.P Koirala in India raise doubt back home about the longevity of the Maoist-led government.
By Anand Gurung
It all looked like a publicity stunt. On Friday, in a break from the usual press photos, pictures of former king Gyanendra Shah, who is currently on a two-week long India visit (the first after monarchy was abolished in June last year), splashed across the front pages of few national dailies. Having read little of the last Shah King in the media in the past two years and almost none since he left the palace, the rare picture and accompanying news story about his parley with an Indian leader was indeed quite surprising for many newspaper readers.
Former King Gyanendra learning to operate the spinning wheel at Gandhi Ashram in Gujrat, India on Thursday.
Wearing a casual half-sleeved shirt, gold watch and sporting dark sun glasses and tika on the forehead, the former King did what royals around the world are best at -- visiting landmarks and places of historical importance and in a mild, carefree manner engage in freelance activities. The former King was pictured Thursday making an entry in the visitor’s book at the Gandhi Ashram in Ahmedabad in Gujrat State of India and later was seen trying to learn the art of operating a spinning wheel with enthusiasm.
The same day he also met Gujrat’s chief minister Narendra Modi in Ahmedabad. Details of the meeting with Modi, who is an influential leader of India’s main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), was not known. However, the meeting is seen with special significance by political observers in Nepal especially because Hindu supremacist BJP has been a long time backer of monarchy in Nepal and expressing severe reservation on former Hindu kingdom of Nepal being declared a secular country. Alleged by Maoist leaders of having embarked on the Indian tour to revive monarchy in some form by garnering support for the ascension of his grandson Hridayendra to the throne in Nepal, the hobnobbing of the former king with BJP leaders has only worked to add fuel to claims that the visit has more to it than meets the eye.
In his first foreign visit as a commoner accompanied by his wife and daughter, the former King attended marriage ceremony of his niece with a royalty scion in Bhopal, visited national parks and shrines in India including the Somnath Temple in Gujarat. Although there are rumours in Nepal that he will be meeting Indian leaders like ruling Congress (I) president Sonia Gandhi, influential opposition BJP leader L.K Advani including Dr Karan Singh, he has so far met only Modi.
It is still not clear whether he will spend some time in New Delhi meeting Indian leaders during the latter part of his stay in India, but if he indeed does then, observers say, it will surely run rumor mills about India cozying up to him.
India is said to be deeply concerned looking at the state of things in Nepal -- the current political uncertainty, dwindling state’s authority, increasing rift between the major political parties including the army and the Maoist leadership and China’s growing presence in Nepal (made clear by the flurry of high-profile visits Chinese civilian and military leaders have made of late).
And if past is any guide, India has always, to use a more casual term, wined and dined with the opposition forces in Nepal if it starts to get the feeling that its interests in Nepal will not be served well by the current administration. As some analysts put it, India always likes to keep its options open in Nepal. We have already seen this once three years ago when increasingly weary with then king Gyanendra led royal regime and its attempts to create a rapport with China, India didn’t hesitate even a bit to bring the Maoist guerillas, which it had classified as terrorists, close to Nepali opposition parties thereby heralding the fall of monarchy in the country.
But India may not see a formidable opposition in the former King. It is not that naïve. And that’s where former prime minister and president of main opposition Nepali Congress Girija Prasad Koirala comes in.
Koirala, who went to New Delhi accompanied by his daughter Sujata on Wednesday making his usual, readymade remark, “I am going there for health check-up, not for political consultation” (Let’s see what suggestions Indian leaders here offer on my health, as one newspaper cartoon quotes him as saying), spent a better part of Thursday holding series of meetings with Indian leaders.
During his meeting with BJP leader (and party prime ministerial candidate) L.K Advani, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and BJP president Rajnath Singh, the octogenarian leader, who once advocated “baby King” concept in his last-ditch effort to save monarchy during the transition government he led, made a case against the growing “Maoist dictatorship” in Nepal but did not ask the Indian leaders help to unseat the Maoist-led government, according to Sujata Koirala.
Although Sujata said that the NC president wasn’t here to seek help to topple the government and that the topic didn’t feature during the discussion with Indian leaders, the Kathmandu Post today quoted a source close to Koirala as saying that there will be no efforts from NC to bring down the government until a new government is formed in New Delhi (India is holding general elections in April).
Koirala is also planning to meet with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress President Sonia Gandhi in the next few days.
Whether India’s ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by Congress (I) does indeed see a formidable opposition in Nepali Congress – this can only be gauged from how cordial Singh and Gandhi will appear in their meeting with Koirala.
With both former king and his one time prime minister in India holding parleys with key Indian leaders, no wonder the Maoist leaders are a bit shaken.
Before Koirala even left for Delhi, the Maoist Finance Minister Dr Baburam Bhattarai had on Sunday pointedly said that the political leaders' upcoming visits to India were aimed at toppling the Maoist-led government. He also said that though the former king embarked on the Indian tour in the name of attending a marriage, his aim is to garner support for the ascension of his grandson Hridayendra to the throne in Nepal.
And on Thursday, when Koirala was meeting with Indian leaders, the Maoist minister claimed that that the former king and “parliamentary party leaders” (apparently UML leader and Maoist basher K.P Oli is also in India with pro-monarchist Surya Bahadur Thapa also in tow) are in India “to repeat Satra Sal”. By Satra Sal, Dr Bhattarai was referring to 2017 B.S (Nepali Calendar) when then King Mahendra (father of Gyanendra), purportedly with the nod from India, dissolved the elected government and replaced it with authoritarian Panchayati regime (headed by the ruling monarch) that ruled Nepal with iron fist for the next three decades.
However, since India can’t bear instability in its “diplomatic backyard” i.e Nepal, trying to topple the Maoist-led government, some analysts say, is the last thing that is presently on the mind of the Indian establishment.

Forget Kathmandu

by PRASHANT JHA

Most kangresis don't read. Ask why, and the joke goes there is no need because BP Koirala has read enough for all of them. But members of the Nepali Congress may want to pick up a booklet published recently by the Social Science Baha titled Views from the Field: Anthropological Perspectives on the CA elections.

The NC's challenge comes from a Maoist party that wants to ruthlessly consolidate. If anyone was entertaining illusions about hardline-softline divisions, they should look at Baburam Bhattarai's recent article which reiterates that the ultimate goal has not changed.

But this desire to expand and control is common across parties. The NC did it when it was in power, padding the Nepal Police with cadre, ensuring the bureaucrats would be loyalists, using the state apparatus to leverage support on the ground. The UML ensured the last local polls went their way when they had control of key ministries.
The Maoists are doing the same thing. What makes it different this time is that they are aided by a strong ideological belief, a coercive apparatus. And they just happen to be smarter than the rest.

Beneath all the complexity, there is a simple truth: if you don't like what the Maoists are doing, mount a political challenge. Don't do what you did during the war? run away and leave a political vacuum. During the insurgency, the valid reason was fear. There may be instances of intimidation now, but the political space has opened up.

NC leaders are not doing this, and they are now afraid that they will be completely marginalized. It is this insecurity that is driving much of the NC rhetoric on Maoist 'totalitarianism'. It is making the NC top rung suck up to India and the army yet again, hoping they would do the job for them by rallying against the Maoists. The army should be careful and not be employed when NC encourages it to go against the civilian chain of command.

At the root of the NC's problem lies its inability or unwillingness to face the election result head on. Yes, there was coercion but to over-estimate that element is intellectual laziness and politically suicidal. The polls were a lot more complex and until the NC sits down, honestly evaluates each seat and why they lost, there will be no revival.

The Baha has compiled three essays by academics who went back on Election Day last April to villages where they had been working for decades. The key lesson is: all politics is local.

David Holmberg visited Nuwakot to witness an election where for the first time parties had given tickets to local Tamangs. But in the constituency he covered, the Maoists had a Bahun candidate and NC had a Tamang face.

Judith Pettigrew was in Kaski and explores how a young local, Thagu, who despised the Maoists for harassing him in 2004 has suddenly become a party member. It was not force, but constant conversations with the Maoists that impressed Thagu and made him defect from the NC.

Mukta Tamang was in Kabhre where he saw how young voters tilted the balance in favour of the Maoists. The defining mood was a fusion of fear and hope.

In each VDC, there are political contradictions. If the NC wants, it can capitalise on it. But for that they have to be quick, proactive and strategic. Ranting in the capital will get them nowhere.

The Bardia OHCHR report depicts a humanitarian catastrophe where Tharu families were victimised relentlessly during the war. It happened under Sher Bahadur Deuba after he deployed the army.

Suppose Deuba went back to Bardia, reached out to affected Tharu families, explained that it was a dirty war and there were mistakes, and shared the pain. All they are looking for is an acknowledgement. The Maoists won all seats in Bardiya, Deuba's gesture would have opened up local space for the NC to at least build links with the community again.

Nepal's liberal democrats are their own worst enemy. They would rather forget how they needed the left even when fighting for democracy in 1990 and 2006, but not rediscover their socialist roots. They would rather live in the capital, in denial about the elections, but do nothing to overhaul the party structure. And they would rather rehabilitate crooks than look for new faces.

NC can recover, but for that, they have to first forget Kathmandu.

Courtesy of: Nepal Times, February 10, 2009

Maoist govt failed due to its deep ties with PLA: Koirala

Former Prime Minister and President of the main opposition party Nepali Congress (NC) Girija Prasad Koirala Saturday remarked that the current Maoist-led government has become ineffective due to failure to make its view clear on Nepal Army (NA).

The government is failure on its part because of its inability to ‘quit’ the Maoist combatants, also known as People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and ‘accept’ the national army.

Talking to journalists at his residence in Biratnagar today, the octogenarian leader said, “The law and order situation of the country has worsened as a result of the controversy over army integration. It’s not sensible to keep two legs in two separate boats at the same time; the government should either choose Maoist combatants or national army.” The top leader of the main opposition party accused the Maoists of making mistake by dragging the NA into controversy. He opined that there is no alternative to move ahead by working together with all the democratic forces.

Koirala remarked that the recent cabinet decision was a tactic to sustain the government.

Claiming that he deserves a special privilege, Koirala said, “The government has tried to tempt me with lollipop, but I won’t be lured into sweets.”

The NC President said Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal behaved as if he did not understand his saying when he tried to make him realise his responsibility towards the nation.

Disregarding the intense protest from the opposition parties and even the coalition parter CPN-UML, the government on Thursday decided to bring in three more ordinances relating to disappeared persons, inclusive government service and voters’ list for the upcoming by-election.

In recent days, the government has come under fire from various quarters over its decision to promulgate ordinances.

Likewise, there is growing cynicism between the Nepal Army and Maoist People’s Liberation after Defense Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa told Nepal Army to stop fresh recruitment, claiming that the new recruitment in army was against the peace pact.

Courtesy of: Kantipur: February 7, 2009

Don't attend PLA function: Prez tells PM, Defense Ministe

President Dr Ram Baran Yadav, who has decided not to attend the upcoming Maoist People’s Liberation Army (PLA) anniversary, has advised the prime minister and the defense Minister to also follow his example and shun the event. Rajendra Dahal, press advisor to the president, told Kantipur Daily Saturday that the president is of the advice that if the prime minister and the defense minister, who are in the command structure of the country’s top security agency, the Nepal Army, attend a programme of another military or paramilitary forces then it will not send a good signal.

It must be noted that Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal is also the chairman of the Unified CPN (Maoist) and Defense Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa is its senior leader. Shital Niwas, the Office of the President, had received the invitation to PLA Day set for February 12. Dahal said that Shital Niwas has already sent a reply informing that Dr Yadav’s will be unable to attend the programme.

Courtesy of: Nepal News, February 8, 2009

China needs a new way

By John Lee
TWELVE months ago, a well-known bear on the Chinese economy revealed to me that a China-sceptic such as himself was treated by his colleagues as a bit of a crackpot, an angry old man, or sometimes, more patronisingly, as somewhat of a curiosity. Arguing that the Chinese model was seriously flawed was almost like denying that global warming was occurring, he said wryly.

Only unreformed socialists were on his side, he quipped. But in the first two weeks of 2009 he has been invited to speak at more conferences and approached to write more articles in prominent publications than during the entire previous year.

The American model of free markets may be on trial, but so is the Chinese model of authoritarian capitalism. Yesterday was officially Chinese new year. It ushered in the year of the ox, symbolising prosperity through fortitude and hard work. But prosperity is increasingly hard to come by. The Shanghai Exchange has seen its index
decline by two-thirds. The Chinese export sector, responsible for 40 percent of Chinese growth over the past decade, is tanking. Some estimate that 20 per cent of factories in the Pearl River delta area have already closed and half will be gone by the end of the year. Overall economic growth is likely to dip below the 8 per cent mark, the point at which unemployment (and therefore unrest) begins to rise dramatically. If we look at informal but probably more accurate indicators, such as power consumption, the Chinese economy is close to stagnating and even contracting. Power use in China fell 9.4 per cent in November 2008.

December figures have not been released. This is despite the trillions of dollars - in addition to the $US586 billion stimulus package - that its state-owned banks regularly but inefficiently pump into state-controlled businesses to maintain the growth levels enjoyed up to now. Domestic investment (from bank loans) was responsible for around half of Chinese GDP growth. Even before the onset of the financial crisis, there was an estimated $1trillion worth of bad loans in the Chinese financial system as a result of this flawed investment strategy. A new and massive spate of bad loans is inevitably around the corner for Chinese banks.

Even before the global financial crisis, those in absolute poverty (earning less than $1 a day) doubled in China during the past decade. More than 400 million had seen their net incomes decline during the same period despite record GDP growth. It is no wonder that domestic consumption growth has been slow and will not be able to take up the slack as the export sector suffers. Instead China must rely on state-led fixed investment to keep growth at 8 per cent, despite acknowledging that this strategy is becoming more inefficient and wasteful, and therefore increasingly unsustainable. The general economic outlook is so dire that the Chinese President, Hu Jintao, has increasingly issued warnings about the possibility of political and social collapse.

The persistent idea that the Chinese economy was decoupling from the West and would provide a buffer for Asia now seems absurd. The Chinese model is clearly not as sound and resilient as many believed. But the amazing thing is not that China is suffering; the facts and figures always suggested that it would in the event of an American and European slowdown. The amazing thing is that so few experts saw it coming; and those that did were dismissed or ridiculed.

In a 2005 essay on why intellectuals tend to get the big questions of their day wrong rather than right, Owen Harries argued that intellectuals are slaves of fashion and that they essentially think in herds. So, too, do economists and policy wonks, it seems. The question, as far as the hype behind the China model is concerned, is who led the
herd? I would hazard a guess and say that there are three distinct groups.

The first are those with economic interests in the continued hype surrounding the Chinese economic miracle: businesses and their strategic advisers who benefited from activity in China, investment banks who made a bundle from multibillion-dollar deals and consultants advising clients how to make it in this world of 1.3 billion people and unlimited possibilities. Even high-profile and very credible people who served in
presidential administrations got in on the act.

The second are national and NGO policymakers and wonks who have wisely dvocated engagement with China in order to encourage Beijing to rise peacefully. The reward of engagement for the Chinese was said to be prosperity for all and a more peaceful and contented China that would please the rest of the developed world. No need to focus on flaws in Beijing's model when much larger political objectives were at stake. The
third are made up of a diverse group of intellectuals (and a few malcontents) who were seeking an alternative to Western and American-style capitalism as the way to go. Most believed in the Chinese model of authoritarian capitalism in good faith and saw the Beijing consensus as an alternative that avoided chaos, corruption and
indecision when it came to developing countries. Unfortunately, the inconvenient truth is that chaos, corruption and indecision (in the form of a stalled reform process) are precisely the problems with the Chinese model that have been largely ignored until now.

The China story is far from finished. China will eventually still rise, but it will need a different model to to do so. Its authoritarian capitalist model has almost gone as far as it can go. Hu put a positive spin on 2008 by concluding that for the Chinese people, 2008 was a very extraordinary and uncommon year. For 2009, the omens are much more ominous.

John Lee is foreign policy fellow at the Centre for Independent Studies
in Sydney. His second edition of Will China Fail? is to be published
shortly.

Courtesy of: The Australian. January 27, 2009

Discordant wavelengths

By ARNAUD DE BORCHGRAVE

America's self-inflicted economic and financial wounds have triggered a reassessment of President Obama's foreign policy objectives by key policymakers abroad. A closer look at Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Middle East. Conventional wisdom takes its lumps.

WASHINGTON, Feb. 3 (UPI) -- As key policymakers abroad survey the attempts to stop and reverse the self-inflicted crumbling of the world's largest economy, they have reached startling conclusions that are out of sync with President Obama's foreign policy objectives.

1. Pakistan. There is no military solution in Afghanistan, confided a top-ranking national security official in Islamabad, not for attribution. He explained the war will have to end with a political solution for a coalition government. This should include "moderate" Taliban fighters along with major Pashtun tribal leaders and President Hamid Karzai's "successor." He also confided security forces can barely cope with Taliban insurgents in the Swat Valley, in Pakistan proper, let alone with the Taliban's safe havens in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas. This makes the Afghan war unwinnable. The more U.S. unmanned Predators bomb FATA targets, the more Taliban jihadis cause mayhem inside Pakistan, one of the world's eight nuclear powers. The Afghan war is inflaming Pakistani public opinion. The creation of a modern state in Afghanistan is mission impossible. Pakistan, therefore, would feel more secure with reformed Taliban in charge in Kabul, Taliban who would formally renounce all ties with al-Qaida, as well as the more pernicious aspects of the medieval theocracy that banned the education of girls. Further military operations should be designed to put pressure on the Taliban to compromise and to eradicate their al-Qaida allies. U.S. forces in Afghanistan will double to 60,000 by summer -- at a cost of $70 billion a year -- bringing the total of allied forces to just fewer than 100,000 for a mountainous country the size of France.

2. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The three allied countries whose parliaments have authorized their troops in Afghanistan to be in harm's way against Taliban fighters -- Britain, Canada and the Netherlands -- want out by the end of 2011. U.S. military commanders believe the Britons "will stay with us, even if it takes several more years." London insiders are less sanguine. Lord West of Spithead, former First Sea Lord and now Prime Minister Gordon Brown's security minister, dropped a bombshell last week by declaring publicly Britain's intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan had fueled global radicalism against the United Kingdom. Foreign Secretary David Miliband urged we all drop the term "war on terror," which he said was deceptive and misleading.

3. Other NATO members. The alliance's head man, Netherlands' Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, who steps down at NATO's 60th anniversary summit in April, is urging the 26 member nations to contribute more troops to Afghanistan. So far no takers. Those with sizable numbers of troops on the ground are hamstrung by caveats against fighting -- notably, Germany, France, Spain, Italy -- and governments skeptical that a narco-state, where corruption from top to bottom is a world record, can be reformed. NATO defense ministers authorized their troops in Afghanistan to undertake "aggressive" counter-narcotics missions against the Taliban's chief source of revenue. There was no follow-through as national parliaments objected.

4. Afghan National Army and Police. Underfunded and years behind schedule in their ability to replace Western forces with any credibility.

5. Middle East. Israel's leading newspaper, Haaretz, has published the equivalent of the Pentagon Papers of Vietnam War fame, information the Israeli state had been hiding for years on the covert expansion of settlements in the West Bank. These were clearly designed to make a Palestinian state in the occupied territories impossible. After reading the voluminous secret file, U.S. mediator George Mitchell may well conclude the endgame of a Palestinian state is unattainable. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak, Haaretz reported, "steadfastly refused to release the report" as "publication could endanger state security and harm Israel's foreign relations." An analysis of the data "reveals that in the vast majority of settlements -- 75 percent -- construction, sometimes on a large scale without the appropriate permits or contrary to the permits that were issued. In 30 major settlements extensive construction of buildings and infrastructure (roads, schools, synagogues, yeshivas and even police stations) has been carried out on private lands belonging to Palestinian West Bank residents." The database, Haaretz reported, does not conform to Israel's official position on the Foreign Ministry Web site, which states: "Israel's actions relating to the use and allocation of land under its administration are all taken with strict regard to the rules and norms of international law. Israel does not requisition private land for the establishment of settlements." It just takes it, says Haaretz.

According to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics, there are now 290,000 Jews who live in 120 official settlements and dozens of outposts established throughout the West Bank over the past 41 years. That's up 50,000 settlers in the West Bank since Gaza's 8,500 were forcibly removed by the Israeli police in 2005 to make room for a Palestinian authority and where elections were then held that sealed Hamas' victory over Fatah.

In realpolitik, Israel's leaders clearly have no intention of pulling 100,000 settlers out of what are now known to be illegal settlements, where Palestinian land was seized arbitrarily, to make a Palestinian state possible.

As far as anyone can peer over the geopolitical horizon, Obama's two principal foreign policy initiatives -- a win in Afghanistan for a democratic government and a final peace treaty between Israel and a Palestinian state -- are will-o'-the-wisp. Time Magazine's cover story this week is headlined "Afghanistan: Obama's Vietnam."

A more promising avenue holds the key to regional stability. Engaging Iran secretly at the highest level, much the way Henry Kissinger opened the way to Beijing's Forbidden City for President Nixon, would seem to be a more profitable avenue for George Mitchell's diplomatic dexterity. Iran's influence in the Middle East -- Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, the Maliki government in Baghdad, diplomatic clout in Oman, Qatar, Dubai -- is not negligible.

Author is Director, Transnational Threats at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

Wait and Watch

By Prashant Jha, in NEW DELHI
India is getting increasingly concerned about the slide in Nepal, but doesn't think it warrants a policy shift just yet. Indian officials admit that they are unhappy with the Maoists: "They have not delivered on their promises,"

one official told us, "their commitment to democracy seems doubtful. They are warming up to China. Not good signs." But sources insist India continues to support the peace and constitution writing process and will not destabilise the present arrangement. "It will be good if non-Maoist actors add pressure on the Maoists. But we will not back any effort to topple the government right now," one senior official told Nepali Times.

Delhi's cautious approach is probably because any policy rethink will require a top level decision and politicians are in election mode. Neither the political leadership nor the senior bureaucratic establishment has time for Nepal. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is in hospital, the MEA is busy with Pakistan and keeping Richard Holbrooke's hands off Kashmir. The endgame in Sri Lanka is the other key regional issue.

"Nepal is not on the radar, do not expect any move till after our elections unless something drastic happens," a former diplomat said. Add to it the sense that domestic politics in Nepal has not played its course yet. "If we jump in, the Maoists will say they did not get a fair chance and blame us. Let them get more discredited and see how otherparties respond," said a security official.

PM Special Envoy Shyam Saran, who no longer handles Nepal, says India's classic dilemma in Nepal is to figure out when to get involved and when to withdraw. "The same people tell us come and help, and then they say give us space," Saran told us, "we have intervened earlier. But the present mood is to step back." India's options are limited, it feels the NC can't mount a credible challenge, the UML is too unreliable and the Madhesi parties are too fragmented. A major policy shift would also be an admission of failure of India's own policy.

This week, Minister Pranab Mukherjee boasted to Al Jazeera how India had "persuaded the Maoists to give up violence and participate in the mainstream national political activities". Even so, sections of the Indian establishment are telling the Maoists to behave, NC to clean up its mess, the army to resist the Maoists and are encouraging the anti-Maoist faction in the UML. What all this will add up to may be clear in a few months. Till then, India will wait and watch.

Follow democratic process to adopt legislation: ICJ

The International Commission of Jurists (ICJ) has asked the government to ensure that legislation on Disappearances (Crime and Punishment) and Truth and Reconciliation are adopted through regular democratic process and not by executive ordinance. In a statement on Friday, ICJ said adoption of such legislation should follow broad based national consultation and should fulfill Nepal's human rights obligations.

"The ICJ is deeply concerned that the government is seeking to undermine the Constituent Assembly and bypass public debate by enacting executive decrees on matters of fundamental national importance," the statement reads. "If the government is serious about respecting the rule of law, these bills must be decided by the elected representatives of the people," said Roger Normand, ICJ's Asia-Pacific Director. The ICJ called for a special parliamentary session to discuss these bills and avoid their adoption by ordinance. Nepali Congress, CPN (UML) and other parties have already opposed the government decision to promulgate ordinances soon after ending the parliamentary session.

Courtesy of: Nepalnews: January 30, 2009

Nepalese Maoists warn Army leader

By Charles Haviland

[Nepalese soldiers fought a decade-long civil war]

The Maoist-led government of Nepal has stepped up the rhetoric in an ongoing war of words between itself and the country's army.

The army and the Maoists fought against each other for 10 years until 2006.Now the Maoist defence minister has issued a fresh warning to the army chief to stop an ongoing process of recruiting people to the military.The confrontation is the most serious between the two institutions since the Maoists won elections last year.

Retirements

After that historic win in April, much of the Nepalese state has been turned upside down. No relationship is more uneasy than that between Ram Bahadur Thapa - defence minister and former commissar of the Maoist rebel army - and Gen Rukmangad Katuwal, the army chief, who was actually brought up inside the palace of the now deposed royals.

[Suspicion still exists between the two sides]

They meet regularly, but in recent weeks a row has arisen over the general's insistence that the military has the right to recruit new people to fill vacancies created by retirements. The Maoists say this breaches one of the peace accords, which forbids either of the formerly warring sides to recruit "additional armed forces" without mutual agreement.

Maoist Defence Minister Thapa has now told a parliamentary committee that there will be "serious consequences" if the army recruitment is not suspended. He said that the military "must obey" his instructions and if it did not, the situation would be tantamount to army rule.

The row is a symptom of the biggest unresolved issue of the peace process: whether and how to integrate the Maoists' own army with the national one. Many of the 19,000 former rebel fighters, currently demobilised in camps, want to join the army. But Gen Katuwal says he will not accept "politically indoctrinated soldiers" into its ranks. The Maoist army, called the People's Liberation Army or PLA, wants some sort of union that allows its top commanders to keep high ranks, and keep a discreet PLA unit. A separate hard line faction in the party wants to avoid integration altogether, keeping the PLA entirely intact.

Coutesy of: British Broadcasting Corporation: January 28, 2009.

Maoist Impunity: Rampant: Brutal murder of Journalist forces Nepal PM to cancel foreign trip

Kathmandu, Jan 15 (IANS)
Under growing fire from journalists’ organisations in Nepal and the international community for the brutal murder of a woman reporter in the turbulent southern plains, Maoist Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda Thursday called off his controversial foreign junket scheduled this week.A group of journalists who met Prachanda Thursday to submit a memorandum seeking justice for 24-year-old Uma Singh who was hacked to death in Janakpur town Sunday, was told the PM had cancelled his European tour in order to stay at home and address the crisis.

Prachanda told the visiting team from the Federation of Nepalese Journalists that he was shocked by Singh’s murder. He said that last month when a media house was attacked by Maoist trade unionists, he had pledged that the attackers would be punished, no matter who they were.

Prachanda told the team that he himself would take initiative once more to ensure that Singh’s killers were caught.

On Saturday, Prachanda was scheduled to lead a 13-member delegation to Norway and Finland, purportedly to see how the two European countries were harnessing wind energy. The knowhow was to have been applied in Nepal to alleviate the reigning dire power crisis.

The proposed junket as well as Prachanda’s penchant for attending fairs while Nepal has been reeling has been under fire. Besides being his sixth proposed foreign visit in five months, Prachanda was criticised for including wife Sita Poudel in the trip to Norway and Finland while the power minister as well as ambassador concerned were dropped.

The stung Nepali ambassador reportedly sent a stiff note to the PM, pointing out that he was slighting his envoys by excluding them from official trips.

Media reports are suggesting that Singh’s murder was linked to the abduction and disappearance of her father and brother three years ago and the confiscation of their land by the Maoists. They raise the possibility of the Maoists having a hand in the incident. If this is proved, it will trigger widespread outrage.

The UN, European Union and US have already condemned the killing and urged the government to punish the slayers.

The Prachanda government is also facing public anger for the power crisis which led the state to declare a 16-hour blackout daily since last Sunday.

Though the Maoist government blames the previous governments for the mess, there are growing protests.

On Thursday, protesters shut down the heart of the capital, throwing traffic off gear.

The disruption caused the first meeting of the new central committee of the Maoists party to be put off Thursday. The meeting had been called to discuss new strategy after the Maoists this week merged with a fringe communist party.

Courtesy of: Compilation of blog based sources and the Thai Indian.

You can't be punished for the same crime twice

	by TILAK POKHAREL KATHMANDU, Jan 28: Awarding a Maoist Central Committee berth to Kali Bahadur Kham, prime accused in the Ram Hari Shrestha murder case against whom an arrest warrant has been issued, is just one instance of how the political party heading the government is nurturing a culture of impunity. The Maoists are not alone in this. The Nepal Army (NA), the Maoists’ former enemy which is still at odds with the Maoist-led government on a number of issues, is equally responsible for contributing to a culture that has been the subject of criticism from rights groups and international organizations. NA has allowed at least two of its officers – then Lieutenant Colonel Bobby Khatri and Captain Niranjan Basnet – to continue in their positions even one year after a civilian court issued arrest warrants against them. Talking in private, police officers say NA has been preventing the law from taking its course by itself arresting the men, who are implicated in the murder of a 15-year-old girl, Maina Sunar, in February 2004 at NA’s Birendra Peace Operations Training Center, Kavre district. Officially, police spokesperson Vinod Singh told myrepublica.com that the case has already gone to court and “police are still on the lookout for the accused”. The accused, meanwhile, continue to serve at Army Headquarters. NA argues that since it has already punished the accused – Khatri, Captain Amit Pun and Captain Sunil Adhikari, who were proven guilty by military court in 2005, the case is closed. The NA didn’t find Basnet guilty. “The army has already court-marshaled and punished them and we have also informed the police about this and Basnet is not guilty,” Brigadier General BA Kumar Sharma, chief of NA’s law department, told myrepublica.com. “They can’t be punished twice for the same crime.” The Military Court, in its ruling, had said Maina was subjected to torture in the presence of seven NA officers and men, including two captains who ordered Maina Sunar’s head submerged in a large pot of water for one minute at a time six or seven times as instructed by Col. Khatri. The NA personnel then administered electric shocks to Maina’s wet hands and feet four or five times; the torture continued for one and a half hours. After that she was detained in a building on the premises of the training center, where she was left blindfolded and handcuffed. She later began vomiting and foaming at the mouth and then died, without having received any medical treatment. However, international rights bodies don’t count the ruling handed down by military court as any punishment. “The officers received sentences of six months in jail and temporary suspension of promotion (for two years), but they are unlikely to serve any actual time in prison, as they were found to have served their sentences in being confined to barracks,” US-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) said in September 2005. In the view of the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in Nepal (OHCHR-Nepal), “justice has not been done”, a view shared by other human rights organizations. Besides being confined to the barracks, Khatri and Adhikari were also asked to pay Rs 50,000 and Rs 25,000 respectively as compensation to the victim’s family. Four years after the crime, Khatri, who continues to serve at the NA Directorate of Military Intelligence (DMI), has been promoted to “full colonel” and Captain Basnet to “major”. Two others -- Pun and Adhikari -- against whom arrest warrants have been issued – have already resigned from the army and are reportedly living abroad. NA’s argument that “the guilty have already been punished” is baseless as the law already took its course once the District Court, Kavre issued arrest warrants against them, said police officers. And, it is government (public) prosecutors, not an NGO or individuals, who have pressed charges against the accused. Following a Supreme Court order, the Office of the Attorney General on October 31, 2007 asked the police to arrest the accused within three months. A police investigation found the accused guilty of Maina’s murder. NA continues to disregard the court rulings and the police request for facilitating the arrests. It has continued to turn down requests from the police for a copy of the Military Court verdict. “The NA hasn’t cooperated with the police investigation,” a police officer, who prefers to remain anonymous, told myrepublica.com. However, NA spokesperson Brigadier General Ramindra Chhetri said the army has been extending all necessary cooperation “to the civilian court” as sought. According to police, Maina’s mother, Devi Sunar, filed an FIR at Kavre District Court on December 6, 2005. Kavre District Court is going to carry out hearings in the case on February 2. “As police have failed to nab the accused, the onus is now on the court,” said the police officer. In the case of the two other accused (Amit Pun and Sunil Adhikari), who have already left the army and gone abroad, police wrote to the Foreign Ministry to have their passports canceled. If convicted, the accused can face life imprisonment with confiscation of all their property, according to lawyer Ambar Raut, who is with the Advocacy Forum, a human rights NGO. However, in absence of the accused, the only thing the court can do now is freeze all their property. Chronology of Maina murder case: February 17, 2004: Maina Sunar is arrested by the Nepal Army and dies later in army custody at the Birendra Peace Operations Training Centre in Panchkhal, Kavre due to torture. September 2005: NA-instituted court marshal proceedings conclude. They find three officers – Colonel Bobby Khatri, Captain Sunil Adhikari and Captain Amit Pun – guilty. No mention is made of Niranjan Basnet. December 6, 2005: Maina’s mother, Devi Sunar, files an FIR at Kavre District Court. May 22, 2006: In reply to a police request to help arrest the accused, NA writes to the District Police Office (DPO), Kavre stating that it has already punished them and no further punishment was needed. November 9, 2006: NA writes to the police stating that there is no provision for making available to police a copy of court martial proceedings. December 21, 2006: OHCHR-Nepal makes public its report on the “torture and death of Maina Sunar”, which accuses the government of apparent lack of political will to hold accountable members of the security forces suspected of involvement in human rights violations. November 6, 2007: DPO Kavre receives an order from the Supreme Court through the Office of the Attorney General to arrest the four accused within three months. January 3, 2008: DPO Kavre writes to the Foreign Ministry requesting the latter to cancel the passports of two accused – Amit Pun and Sunil Adhikari, who are believed to be living abroad. January 31, 2008: Kavre District Court issues 70-day arrest warrants against the four accused. April 2008: Police paste a notice outside the home of Amit Pun in Anandaban (Rupandehi district) asking him to submit himself to police within 70 days. May 1, 2008: Police paste a notice outside the home of Major Niranjan Basnet in Bhimeshwar Municipality (Dolakha district) asking him to submit himself to police within 70 days. July 1, 2008: Police paste a notice outside the home of Sunil Adhikari at Bansbari asking him to submit himself to police within 70 days. July 13, 2008: Police paste a notice outside the home of Col. Bobby Khatri at Gyaneshwor asking him to submit himself to police within 70 days. February 2, 2009: District Court, Kavre is to conduct hearings in the case. Countesy of: Republica, January 28, 2009

Nepal: Prachanda in troubled waters

A veteran Maoist commander finds running a democracy difficult
by Nava Thakuria

Nepal’s collision with Maoist-led secular democracy after 150-odd years of royal religious rule is now nearing half a year in age with distinctly mixed success, lots of violence and many problems stemming from a party that seems ill-equipped to lead an electorate by consensus.
After more than a decade of guerilla war, in which an estimated 15,000 people died, elections were held last April, with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, known by the nom de guerre Prachanda, taking power with a mandate to write a new constitution after sending the king packing. But the logical end to the peace process with the former armed communists is still uncertain. At least one journalist has been murdered and many others have been met with violence.
"Prachanda is really confused about how to perform his role as an administrator in a democratic setup,” a Kathmandu-based political analyst told Asia Sentinel. “He is caught between being the Maoist chairman and the prime minister. He seems to be more interested in a single-party communist dictatorship in Kathmandu than a multiparty democracy. As the head of the government, Prachanda has failed to ensure security for common Nepalis as news related to extra-judicial killings, extortion and abduction pour into the media."
Prachandra is having a hard time engaging with the democratic and social institutions he joined after the overthrow, political observers in Kathmandu say. He has found himself in a long string of unnecessary controversies because of inexperience and intolerance after being sworn in last August. Far too often, the Maoists appear to want to solve problems the same way they came to power – through violence.
The latest controversy erupted over the Pashupatinath Temple, the holiest Hindu shrine in Nepal when, in an abrupt move, the government tried to turf out the working Pujaris, or priests, who are traditionally from India, and to replace them with Nepali Brahmins. A group of Maoists and the members of the Young Communist League, its youth organization, stormed into the temple and vandalized the southern gate, threatening the Indian Pujaris to leave the place.
Although the Supreme Court of Nepal, defying the Communists, directed the temple authorities not to let the newly-appointed Nepali priests perform the rituals and issued an order that the three Indian priests could carry on with the rituals till its final verdict, the Maoists simply ignored the court directions. But, outraged by the assault, the temple management committee under the Pashupati Area Development Trust has now demanded that the President of Nepal be made patron of the body instead of the prime minister, as the king was when the monarchy was in power.
The temple, a UNESCO heritage site, attracts nearly 1 million pilgrims annually, primarily from Nepal and India. The resultant uproar, a huge public outcry, was too hot to handle for Prachanda, who later backed down and reinstated the Indian Brahmins.
Beyond that, the first months have been characterized by the Maoistled government’s failure to draft a constitution for the poverty-stricken country of 27 million people and arrange for a general election within three years. Prachanda finds himself in continuing controversy. He has earned the distrust of the bureaucracy and the Army, saying they were not supportive of him. He has also criticized opposition parties, charging them with for putting hurdles in his way.
Nepali media reported Prachanda as saying, "It is impossible to go for the task (drafting of a new constitution for the federal democratic republic of Nepal) without the support and consensus from the major political parties. If they (the Nepali Congress party) do not support the government, I will resign and go to the people."
Nepali Congress chief Girija Prasad Koirala promptly responded by saying that the Maoist-led government “are not serious about the drafting of the constitution. What they want is only to continue in power and pursue their agendas for a complete tyrannical rule."
Another former premier of Nepal, Sher Bahadur Deuba, also a Nepali Congress leader, dismissed Prachanda's claim that traditional forces were creating trouble, alleging that innocent people were still being killed by Maoists, law and order are deteriorating, and that the price of essential commodities has continued to rise.
In a stinging comment, Deuba told reporters that it is always more difficult to run a government than to kill people as an armed rebel.
However, the Deputy Prime Minister, Bamdev Gautam, a member of the Communist party Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist) was supportive, joining Prachanda in criticizing what he called the 'old-fashioned bureaucracy' , which he said created hurdles in running the government. Gautam even criticized his own party leaders as being much too critical, "We should not forget that we are also a part of the coalition government,” he said. “And if the Prachanda-led Maoist government fails, we have also to receive brickbats from the people."

Nonetheless, Madhav Kumar Nepal, a high-ranking member of Gautam’s party called the first hundred days of the Maoist government a total failure.
Prachanda kicked off another uproar recently by saying there was a need 'to educate people about the positive aspects of violence,’ adding that the peace in Nepal after the political change had been established through the barrel of the gun.
"We should not tell people lies about violence," Prachanda said during a discourse at Kathmandu on December 12. Addressing a seminar of the Progressive Writers' Association, Prachanda argued that 'in order to preserve the existing peace, every Nepali should be trained how to use weapons'. Prachanda clarified that he was making those points as the chairman of his party and not as the premier of Nepal, reiterating that as the head of the government he was committed for the peace process and the drafting of a pro- people constitution.
But his comments on 'the outcome of violence' stirred criticism across the political and media spectrum, with the general secretary of CPN-UML. Jhalanath Khanal said three days later that Prachanda was 'confused whether he is a politician or a rebel,’ with other politicians saying his comments had the potential to derail the peace process and turn Nepal into a failed state.”


Uma Singh
After the media, particularly the Telegraph Nepal and other publications, accused Prachanda of glorifying violence as a means to empower the people, respected elements of the press have been attacked. Ominously, as many as 15 suspected Maoist cadres invaded the home of a young woman journalist and human rights activist, Uma Singh, on January 12 and hacked her to death. The Federation of Nepalese Journalists claimed that Maoists were involved in the brutal murder. The federation president Dharmendra Jha pointed out that Uma’s father, Ranjit Singh, and elder brother Sanjay had also both been abducted and killed by them some years earlier. Thousands of citizens joined in the funeral procession and all the radio stations in surrounding districts suspended programming to run tributes to the young woman. Four suspects have been arrested.
Earlier Prachanda faced unprecedented hue and cry when activists belonging to his party vandalized a prestigious media group in Kathmandu on December 21. The attack on Himalmedia Pvt Ltd, the publisher of the Nepali language Himal Khabarpatrika, the English weekly Nepali Times, the regional Himal Southasian and Wave, an English magazine, resulted in injuries to reporters and other employees and also considerable damage to property.
An unruly mob of more than 50 Maoists went after the respected Nepali journalist and Nepali Times editor Kunda Dixit, although he wasn’t hurt seriously, and threatened to repeat the violence and target other newspapers as well if the media continue publishing articles critical of the Maoists.
The incident was strongly condemned by the media, both national and international, and sociopolitical organizations. The Nepali Journalist Federation protested the acts by leaving the editorial pages of the daily newspapers blank on December 23. They were joined in denouncing the incident by the International Federation of Journalists and Reporters San Frontiers, which said that 'the government must guarantee the right of every voice to be heard by punishing violators and by not allowing its supporters to act with impunity'. Condemnations also poured in from political leaders and human rights groups.
The Prime Minister expressed sadness over the incident and quickly denied that the attackers had any direct relationship with his Maoist party. He also assured that the government would investigate the matter and book those involved in the attack under the law, although he offered up the excuse that 'some immoral agents who might have infiltrated into the Maoist party' were involved instead.
Later the government ordered a probe into the incident of attack on Himalmedia.
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recently expressed apprehension that the Maoist party might continue 'using arms and violence' to settle political scores. The UN chief, who visited Nepal last year, observed, "The internal debate held during the national gathering (of the Maoists) and some public statements by Maoist leaders also resonated outside the party, giving rise to further questioning of the Maoists' commitment to multi-party democracy and concern that the party has not abandoned its military past."
Courtesy: Asia Sentinel: January 21, 2009

Maoist, NA at loggerheads

AKHILESH UPADHYAY
KATHMANDU, Jan 22 - Despite Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal's recent dismissal of speculations that his party is all set to remove Chief of Army Staff Gen. Rookmangud Katawal from office, relations between the Unified CPN (Maoist) and Nepal Army (NA) continue to remain frosty and there is deep insecurity in the NA that Maoists are likely to mount a charge for Gen. Katawal's removal before his three-year term comes to an end in mid-September.
Should this happen, it will further deepen the already-growing polarisation between political parties and possibly between major international actors too. It can also add to Nepal Army's perception that Maoists want to subjugate, while the NA continues to look for elusive political patronage since the decline and demise of monarchy.
Never in best of terms, relations between Maoists and the Army chief have especially deteriorated after Gen. Katawal took a firm position on not rolling back the NA's ongoing recruitment of some 2,800 personnel, a process that officially began on Nov. 2 with a vacancy advertisement in newspapers.
On Dec. 24, the Maoist-led Defence Ministry wrote a letter to the Army, asking it to stop the recruitment process. In its Dec. 31 response, the NA said its move is well within the confines of the peace agreement and constitutional. In the ongoing recruitment, the Army has received some 50,000 applications and collected Rs. 5.5 million in application fees.
NA insists that the current recruitment doesn't violate any clause in the 12-point agreement or the Interim Constitution as NA personnel will remain within the current NA ceiling. The peace clauses, the NA argues, only bars recruitment that would swell the current NA ranks. Not filling up routine vacancies would stretch the current personnel. The annual turnover comes out to be anywhere between 2,500-3,000. This is the third NA recruitment since the peace process started in 2006 and the fact that the recruitment became a story only now and not on past two occasions gives further credence to the theory that differences between the NA and Maoists are deepening.
The opposition Nepali Congress has gone on record in support of the NA recruitment process, insisting that "any attempt to politicise" the recruitment issue will only affect the morale of the apolitical institution. Madheshi Janadhikar Forum and CPN-UML, two major partners in the ruling coalition and the third and fourth largest parties in the Constituent Assembly, have also supported the NA position on going ahead with the recruitment.
The move is likely to lead to polarisation in the international community too. Already, New Delhi has conveyed to the CPN (Maoist) leadership in various forums that early removal of the Army chief could create needless political complications.
Delhi views that the Maoists, having achieved their goals of removal of monarchy and institutionalization of a republic through the Constitutional Assembly, could now sidestep their commitment to pluralism and multiparty democracy in violation of the letter and spirit of the 12-point agreement between the Seven Party Alliance and CPN (Maoist) developed, and ultimately signed, in New Delhi in 2005. In all likelihood, Beijing will support the Maoist position. It is still not very clear how two other major international actors, which have enjoyed strong ties with Nepal Army -- Washington and London -- would respond. "For now, both U.S. and U.K. are keeping cards very close to their chest," said a senior government official.
Though Gen. Katawal can potentially contest his removal (should that happen) in the Supreme Court, it is not going to be an easy option. First, any defiance on his part could be interpreted as abeyance to a civilian government and hence undemocratic. Second, the new Army chief and a section of senior Army officials could question his move, severely crippling his political grounds.
If Katawal is removed in the near future, his successor will be Gen. Kul Bahadur Khadka whose own term expires mid-June, but Khadka will continue in the office as Army chief for a three-year term should he be promoted to the top position. If Gen. Katawal completes his term in September, Gen. Chhattraman Singh Gurung is the senior-most general in the line of succession.
"We have already made our position on the NA recruitment clear" said a UML Cabinet minister. "We expect the Maoists to take us into confidence in the true spirit of a coalition if they are planning to take any decision on the fate of Nepal Army and its chief."
One important date to watch would be Feb. 16-21, when the UML General Convention gets underway. Whether the Maoists make their move before the convention depends a lot on what kind of outcome they would like to see: removing Gen. Katawal before the convention is likely to bolster the stocks of the anti-Maoist camp in UML led by K. P. Oli. Either two or three senior most leaders in the party - General Secretary J. N. Khanal, former General Secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal and Oli - are likely to contest for the proposed executive chair in the party convention.
There have been speculations in recent days that Unified CPN (Maoist) will take the decision to remove the Army chief sooner rather than later to appease hardliners in the party. Prime Minister Dahal, according to this theory, is under tremendous pressure from Defence Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa who, it is said, views Gen. Katawal's continued refusal to roll back the recruitment as the ultimate affront to his authority.
Courtesy: Kantipur: January 21, 2009